Over 1.5 goals tips today – Tuesday 3 November 2026
We modelled 65 fixtures across 33 leagues for Tuesday 3 November 2026. 3 Over 1.5 selections cleared both filters: at least 90% from our goals model and at least 90% historical hit rate. The strongest is Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain at 95.5%.
Today's Over 1.5 picks, ranked by probability
| KO | Match | Market | Model probability | Hist. hit rate | xG | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain | Over 1.5 | 95.5% | 93.1% | 4.93 | 1.10 |
| 19:45 | East Kilbride v Stirling Albion | Over 1.5 | 92.8% | 97.4% | 4.55 | 1.10 |
| 20:00 | Atletico Madrid v Bayern München | Over 1.5 | 91.1% | 96.0% | 4.09 | 1.12 |
Other matches we modelled
These did not clear both 90% filters, so they are not used on tickets.
| KO | Match | Market | Model probability | Hist. hit rate | xG | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Inverness CT v Montrose | Over 1.5 | 94.7% | 88.1% | 4.85 | 1.14 |
| 19:45 | Bury v Avro | Over 1.5 | 91.1% | 74.4% | 4.03 | 1.05 |
| 19:45 | Brentwood Town v Leatherhead | Over 1.5 | 88.4% | 81.2% | 3.77 | 1.08 |
| 19:45 | Torreense W v SL Benfica W | Over 1.5 | 88.0% | 87.2% | 3.44 | 1.08 |
| 19:45 | Anstey Nomads v Real Bedford | Over 1.5 | 87.0% | 95.1% | 3.56 | 1.09 |
| 19:45 | Wingate & Finchley v Burgess Hill Town | Over 1.5 | 87.0% | 90.5% | 3.61 | 1.09 |
| 19:45 | Eastbourne Borough v Stanway Rovers | Over 1.5 | 86.2% | 81.8% | 3.52 | 1.10 |
| 19:45 | Dorking Wanderers v Hampton & Richmond | Over 1.5 | 85.4% | 81.5% | 3.45 | 1.10 |
| 15:00 | Al-Raed v Al Wehda Club | Over 1.5 | 85.0% | 71.7% | 3.25 | 1.12 |
| 19:45 | Plymouth Parkway v Uxbridge | Over 1.5 | 84.3% | 85.8% | 3.31 | 1.13 |
| 19:45 | Bracknell Town v Chertsey Town | Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 83.7% | 3.28 | 1.14 |
| 12:00 | Górnik Łęczna W v Czarni Sosnowiec W | Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 92.9% | 3.19 | 1.14 |
| 19:45 | Farnborough v Ebbsfleet United | Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 85.7% | 3.29 | 1.12 |
| 19:45 | QPR v Burnley | Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 83.9% | 3.19 | 1.22 |
| 18:00 | Sirius v Halmstad | Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 81.2% | 3.21 | 1.12 |
| 12:10 | Al-Kawkab v Jerash | Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 92.5% | 3.13 | 1.15 |
| 19:45 | Huddersfield v Luton | Over 1.5 | 82.4% | 92.9% | 3.16 | 1.20 |
| 19:45 | Airdrie United v Elgin City | Over 1.5 | 81.3% | 83.3% | 3.25 | 1.18 |
| 19:45 | Curzon Ashton v United of Manchester | Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 82.6% | 3.05 | 1.18 |
| 19:45 | Guiseley AFC v Leek Town | Over 1.5 | 80.3% | 88.0% | 3.01 | 1.19 |
| 23:00 | Aurora v Independiente Petrolero | Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 81.9% | 3.03 | 1.08 |
| 19:45 | Derby v Norwich | Over 1.5 | 78.9% | 72.8% | 2.88 | 1.22 |
| 19:45 | Lewes v Dartford | Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 87.3% | 2.93 | 1.22 |
| 19:45 | AFC Emley v Bamber Bridge | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 83.7% | 2.86 | 1.22 |
| 12:00 | Al Najoom v Al Shoalah | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 77.3% | 2.79 | 1.22 |
| 19:45 | Bury Town v Kettering Town | Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 74.6% | 2.86 | 1.22 |
| 19:45 | Poole Town v Hanwell Town | Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 76.3% | 2.85 | 1.22 |
| 22:30 | Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 83.9% | 2.76 | 1.25 |
| 18:00 | AGF W v Midtjylland W | Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 80.1% | 2.75 | 1.24 |
| 19:45 | Chippenham Town v Evesham United | Over 1.5 | 76.2% | 88.9% | 2.76 | 1.25 |
| 19:45 | Preston v Sheffield Utd | Over 1.5 | 76.2% | 75.4% | 2.72 | 1.25 |
| 21:30 | Monagas SC v Caracas FC | Over 1.5 | 75.9% | 65.8% | 2.68 | 1.22 |
| 23:20 | Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares | Over 1.5 | 75.6% | 66.5% | 2.70 | 1.30 |
| 18:15 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Over 1.5 | 75.4% | 80.5% | 2.63 | 1.17 |
| 19:45 | Watford v Lincoln | Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 71.2% | 2.66 | 1.25 |
| 19:45 | Ashton United v Warrington Town | Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 83.7% | 2.69 | 1.27 |
| 19:45 | Charlton v Bolton | Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 73.5% | 2.64 | 1.22 |
| 20:00 | West Brom v Southampton | Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 69.6% | 2.63 | 1.22 |
| 21:00 | Xelajú v Marquense | Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 75.2% | 2.70 | 1.28 |
| 20:00 | Sporting Cristal W v Alianza Lima W | Over 1.5 | 73.6% | 89.1% | 2.78 | 1.29 |
Leagues covered today
Questions about Over 1.5 goals
What does Over 1.5 goals mean?
The bet wins if the match ends with two or more goals in normal time (90 minutes plus stoppage time). 0-0 and 1-0 type results lose; 1-1, 2-0 and anything higher wins.
How are these Over 1.5 probabilities calculated?
Every morning we fit our own statistical goals model to each league's recent results, giving more weight to recent matches. It estimates each team's attacking and defensive strength, turns them into a full score grid, and adds up every score with two or more goals.
Why do you also show a historical hit rate?
The model is one view; the record is another. We check how often Over 1.5 landed in the home side's recent home games, the away side's recent away games, their head-to-heads and the league overall. A pick has to clear 90% on both before it can go on a ticket.
How did yesterday go?
The track record starts once the first tickets are settled.